My homework for rest of the week…

I do agree that NIFTY closed above the level I anticipated. I tried to explore if it is the start of a reversal or just a retracement of the whole drop from the top (4692).

I looked into the behavior statistics and found it is still not ripe to say that a reversal of the trend has occurred.

On the chart you can see at "1" and "2",  how perfectly, NIFTY has resisted . Now NIFTY is close to the white line which is at 4265. Incidentally, this level matched with the 61.8 % Fib retracement level too. This is the point which will now give a tough fight. "In case" it passes through 4265, the next resistance is at around 4350.

 

A close beyond this point (Beyond the red line) should be considered as the exit point for SHORT positions holding, for longer period.

Calculated guess

The fist weakness may set in by around 1155 to 1200 hrs.Lets see...

Disclaimer: This is my view and is not intended for trading purpose.

Some more steam left…?

It looks like there is some more steam left. It did not happen exactly the same way I mentioned yesterday; but rallied as expected. Re measuring, I get different resistances than mentioned yesterday; but close enough so that the difference can be ignored.

 

I expect NIFTY to open positive tomorrow and spike to 4162 and turn down. The maximum it can go this week looks to be 4230. It can even turn down from the current level.

 

The next drop can very well take it 3800 or below-a sharper fall than seen last week.